- Predictions for 2022, 2025 and 2030
- Is the current crisis a crypto winter?
- How long will it last?
- Is bitcoin worth buying and holding now?
On July 13, 2022, Finder published its research on bitcoin value prediction. It is based on two surveys.
- A weekly survey of a shifting group of 5 fintech experts: whether they are optimistic, bearish or neutral about bitcoin 2 weeks ahead.
- A quarterly survey, last conducted in July, of a group of 53 industry experts who give their opinions on how bitcoin will behave over the next decade.
By the end of 2022, experts believe the value of bitcoin will rise to $25,473.
The value is expected to fluctuate over the remaining six months: $13,676 when the price bottoms and rises to $35,484.
Five experts see the worst-case scenario outlook. As you can see from the chart, the majority is still in favor of the bitcoin value of $12 to $15 thousand.
5 people believe the value of bitcoin will rise above $60,000.
Notably, Finder conducted a similar survey in the spring of 2022 and its predictions were more optimistic. At that time, the experts predicted a maximum price of $65,185 (April 2022 survey) and $76,360 (January 2022 survey). This is yet another evidence of the current unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market.
However, while the current forecasts are lower than in previous reports, the group still expects a similar upward trajectory for bitcoin value, only starting from a lower base. The projection of $25,473 at the end of 2022 represents about a 22% increase in its price of $20,808 at the time of writing. A forecast of $106,757 by 2025 would represent a 413% increase, and a 2030 forecast of $314,314 would represent a 1411% increase in its price from today.
As can be seen from the chart, the trends from the different surveys coincide, meaning financial experts are consistently confident in the rise in bitcoin’s value.
The pessimistic sentiment of “crypto winter” has not escaped the pollsters. A year ago, the group predicted BTC would close at about $265,000 in 2025 and $706,000 in 2030, a far cry from the projections of about $107,000 and $314,000 in the July 2022 report.
According to Vetle Lunde, an analyst at Arcane Research, investors need to prepare for tough times and the cryptocurrency market itself needs to go through a “sobering” phase.
The coin is a failed experiment, according to John Hawkins, a senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, who gives a below-average forecast for bitcoin of $10,000 by the end of 2022. He is one of the few in the group who thinks it is time to sell bitcoin:
“BTC is clearly not a store of value given its price volatility. It is not a medium of exchange – almost no stores accept it. It is not a unit of account – the only things priced in it are other cryptocurrencies. So it is not money or really a currency, it is nothing but a speculative bubble in the process of imploding.”
Conversely, Gavin Smith, general partner at Panxora Hedge Fund, thinks bitcoin will end the year at $48,000. He expects “the second half of 2022 to be characterized by declining pressure for higher rates combined with a negative real yield. These factors together should be constructive for Bitcoin price performance.”
Fred Schebesta, the founder of Finder, believes bitcoin will be worth $75,000 by the end of 2022, and sees its current price as a reaction to what is happening in other markets rather than a reaction to the “value” that BTC provides:
“The market is currently fearful. However, the technology hasn’t changed and is still strong. Bitcoin is following the downturn of other parts of the economy, but I have strong conviction that it will bounce back.”
The main characteristic of a crypto winter is a long time of flat trading after a sharp price drop. In this case, the collapse occurred in May and was triggered by several events, the largest of which, according to 70% of panelists, was the global interest rate hike. This is followed by the collapse of Terra (LUNA) (68%), a tightening of balance sheets by central banks (47%) and rising inflation (40%).
29% believe it will end by the end of 2022. 46% predict a rise in the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2023. And 24% see an end to “crypto winter” after 2024.
There is a view that regulation of stablecoins should be introduced. And Thomson Reuters technologist and futurologist Joseph Raczynski says that up and down cycles will accelerate and occur more frequently.
Interestingly, half of those surveyed advocate buying bitcoin, while 40% speak in favor of keeping the existing ones. And only 10% say to sell.
Bitcoin is compared to gold, which means it is seen as a safe long-term investment.
42% consider bitcoin a risky asset, with another 42% regarding it as a reliable one. And 15% do not consider it an asset at all and, accordingly, refuse to classify it as referred to one category or another.
The cryptocurrency market is in its infancy. Naturally, until some traditions and rules related to digital money are formed in people’s minds, everyone either does what is customary regarding traditional finances or comes up with something fundamentally new.
This situation will last for decades until a generation grows up for whom having a cryptocurrency wallet will be as familiar as a bank card in your pocket and a smartphone in your hand.
But we can say unequivocally that the technology was born and quickly burst into the economy around the world. It will not disappear or dissolve into oblivion, as many higher-ups would like it to. So it is up to people, ordinary users, to determine the future of cryptocurrency, and that is what makes it so strong – its independence.